Our Economic Outlook Conference will cover the impact of the global, macro and regional economies on housing, credit, auto, labor, commercial real estate, the election and emerging markets, as well as critical issues such as CECL and climate change.
Meet peers from over 75 financial institutions to exchange ideas and forge new relationships.
Gain insight from Moody’s Analytics experts on key enhancements to our products and solutions and our newest thought provoking concepts.
Managing Director - Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics
Breaking Down Consumer Spending
Political tensions and economic imbalances are putting pressure on the global economy. In the American consumers are spending, but not with the gusto one might expect given the low unemployment and high consumer confidence. This session will assess the reasons why, including which demographic groups are most responsible, and what it means for the consumer spending outlook.
Macroeconomics of Climate Change
The global macroeconomic fallout from climate change is quickly mounting. This session presents our research in assessing the economic consequences of climate change and the policy response to it. We consider the physical and transition risk posed by climate change, and the regulatory response.
Lending to Small Businesses
Using more than a decade of small business loan data from our partnerships with Equifax and the Small Business Financial Exchange, we consider the outlook for small business lending. We identify trends in the risk of lending to different business types, locations, and sizes.
Information coming soon!
Road to Recession
Despite the record long economic expansion, the business cycle hasn’t been repealed and a recession will happen at some point. This session will discuss the potential catalysts for the next recession and the tools we use to gauge where the economy is in the business cycle and if a recession is coming into view.
Global Inequality and Social Unrest
Globalism has increased prosperity in recent decades, but it has also increased income and wealth inequality and more importantly made inequality more obvious to everyone. Populism and volatile politics have swept across the globe, increasing social unrest and other risks in many countries.
With the larger public companies disclosing the impact of the new accounting standard on their balance sheets, we will discuss best practices that the next phase of CECL adopters can leverage. We will also talk about CECL’s Day 2, or ongoing provisioning, impact. What are some of the concerns institutions have in this area, especially in an economy that is at a turning point, and how can these be managed?
Affordable Housing Crisis
There is a large and growing gap between supply and demand for affordable housing for rent and ownership. This session will assess the magnitude of the affordable housing crisis, its causes, and potential policy responses to address it.
Gauging Global Asset Returns
A soft global economy and heightened geopolitical risks could spell trouble for global asset markets. This session focuses on our forecasts for global asset returns and financial market indicators over multiple horizons. We quantify the risks and uncertainty in asset returns using a macroeconomic framework.
Stochastic simulation of our economic models provide a powerful, alternative means of constructing scenario forecasts to narrative-based deterministic scenarios. This session discusses how our global macro model has been adapted to perform stochastic simulations and highlights important use cases.
House Prices for Block Groups
Urban areas are experiencing rapidly changing housing market conditions. This session presents our research in modelling and projecting demographic and economic conditions and house prices for block groups and individual properties.
Global Debt Loads Get Weightier
Global debt loads are steadily mounting. In the U.S., federal government and corporate debt are increasing. In China, it is local government debt and debt owed by state owned enterprises. This session examines the changing composition of global leverage and considers the global economic risks.
Looking at the Loan-Level
This session examines how consumers recover from delinquency on their auto loan payments. Our partnership with Equifax allows us to use account-level data enables to examine the factors and circumstances associated with account transitions from delinquency back to current status.
Wilmington Blue Rocks Game
Victor Calanog, Senior Director - Head of CRE Economics, Moody's Analytics
Skewing of Household Wealth
The wealth distribution has become increasingly skewed. We construct detailed metro area household balance sheets that show the distribution of assets and liabilities over a broad set of financial and non-financial categories.
Leveraged Lending Lets Loose
Leveraged lending – loans to below investment grade non-financial corporate borrowers – has expanded rapidly in recent year. The rapid growth of this market hankers back to what happened in housing finance leading up to the financial crisis, raising concerns. Are these concerns warranted?
Climate Change in Credit Risk Models
This session explores the relevance of climate risk factors as drivers for credit risk parameters. The aim is to connect climate scenarios to risk management models and test whether these factors are drivers of credit performance. Case studies will be considered covering retail and corporate credit portfolios.
This session examines why poverty is concentrated in particular areas, especially those that are adjacent affluent areas. We examine whether the poverty rate is an adequate measure of economic hardship, what causes a person to be in poverty, and what policies would help lift people out of poverty.
From Libor to Sofr
Global financial institutions will soon be required to stop using Libor. This session considers the reasons why Libor is being jettisoned and possible replacements, including Sofr. The broad implications of the transition, what it means for our models, and what we are doing to prepare are also considered.
Machine Learning in Modeling Auto Residual
This sessions considers the pros and cons of using machine learning for model development in the context of auto residual values. We will provide insights into auto residual behavior for different vehicle makes and models under multiple economic scenarios.
And the Winner Is...
Who wins the upcoming presidential election is key to the economic outlook. President Trump’s policies are 180 degrees different than most of his potential Democratic rivals. This session presents on our presidential election model at the electoral college level and we predict who will be the next president
Where's My Jet Pack? Automation and the Productivity Puzzle
Smartphones, robots, internet connectivity, cloud computing, genomics. The list of technological innovation goes on and on. And yet, productivity growth remains relatively muted. How can this be? In this session, we’ll explore how automation impacts the labor market and the economy more broadly.
Scenario Governance Under CECL
Global bank stress testing and new accounting regimes make economic scenarios increasingly central to critical risk management and financial reporting activities. With this appropriately comes greater scrutiny from regulators and auditors. This session details our scenario governance framework, its implementation, and the tools that support it.
Adam Kamins, Senior Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics
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