Economic Outlook Conference 2020

Looking to the Long Run

June 1-3, 2020
Wilmington, de

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What are the risks and opportunities facing your business? Join us as we share forward-looking insights and best practices for Better Economic Decisions.

Our Economic Outlook Conference will cover the impact of the global, macro and regional economies on housing, credit, auto, labor, commercial real estate, the election and emerging markets, as well as critical issues such as CECL and climate change.

NETWORKING

Meet peers from over 75 financial institutions to exchange ideas and forge new relationships.

Demo Stations

Gain insight from Moody’s Analytics experts on key enhancements to our products and solutions and our newest thought provoking concepts.

Agenda

12:00 Pm to 4:00 Pm

cre roundtable - reis

5:00 Pm to 7:00 Pm

welcome reception

8:00 am to 8:45 am

Registration

8:45 am to 9:00 am

WELCOME

9:00 am to 10:15 am

oPENING ADDRESs

Mark Zandi

Managing Director - Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics

10:15 am to 10:45 am

Break & Demo stations

breakout sessions

10:45 AM TO 11:45 AM

U.S. Economic Outlook

Breaking Down Consumer Spending

Political tensions and economic imbalances are putting pressure on the global economy. In the American consumers are spending, but not with the gusto one might expect given the low unemployment and high consumer confidence. This session will assess the reasons why, including which demographic groups are most responsible, and what it means for the consumer spending outlook.

Speaker:

Scott Hoyt
Senior Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Global Economic Outlook

Macroeconomics of Climate Change

The global macroeconomic fallout from climate change is quickly mounting. This session presents our research in assessing the economic consequences of climate change and the policy response to it. We consider the physical and transition risk posed by climate change, and the regulatory response.

Speaker:

Chris Lafakis                                       Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Models, Data, and Scenarios

Lending to Small Businesses

Using more than a decade of small business loan data from our partnerships with Equifax and the Small Business Financial Exchange, we consider the outlook for small business lending. We identify trends in the risk of lending to different business types, locations, and sizes.

Speaker:

Shuying Shen                      
Associate Director - Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics

11:45 am to 12:45 pm

lUNCH & LEARN ROUNDTABLES

Information coming soon!

12:45 PM TO 1:45 PM

U.S. Economic Outlook

Road to Recession

Despite the record long economic expansion, the business cycle hasn’t been repealed and a recession will happen at some point. This session will discuss the potential catalysts for the next recession and the tools we use to gauge where the economy is in the business cycle and if a recession is coming into view.


Speaker:

Ryan Sweet
Director - Real Time Economics, Moody's Analytics

Global Economic Outlook

Global Inequality and Social Unrest

Globalism has increased prosperity in recent decades, but it has also increased income and wealth inequality and more importantly made inequality more obvious to everyone. Populism and volatile politics have swept across the globe, increasing social unrest and other risks in many countries.


Speaker:

Eric Gaus
Assistant Director - Economist, Moody's Analytics

Models, Data, and Scenarios

CECL Lessons

With the larger public companies disclosing the impact of the new accounting standard on their balance sheets, we will discuss best practices that the next phase of CECL adopters can leverage. We will also talk about CECL’s Day 2, or ongoing provisioning, impact. What are some of the concerns institutions have in this area, especially in an economy that is at a turning point, and how can these be managed?

Speaker:

Sohini Chowdhury
Director - Solutions Specialist,
Moody's Analytics

1:45 Pm to 2:00 Pm

Break & Demo stations

2:00 PM TO 3:00 PM

U.S. Economic Outlook

Affordable Housing Crisis

There is a large and growing gap between supply and demand for affordable housing for rent and ownership.  This session will assess the magnitude of the affordable housing crisis, its causes, and potential policy responses to address it.

Speakers:

Cris deRitis
Senior Director - Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics

Mark Zandi
Managing Director - Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics

Global Economic Outlook

Gauging Global Asset Returns

A soft global economy and heightened geopolitical risks could spell trouble for global asset markets. This session focuses on our forecasts for global asset returns and financial market indicators over multiple horizons. We quantify the risks and uncertainty in asset returns using a macroeconomic framework.

Speaker:

Damien Moore
Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Models, Data, and Scenarios

Stochastic Simulation

Stochastic simulation of our economic models provide a powerful, alternative means of constructing scenario forecasts to narrative-based deterministic scenarios. This session discusses how our global macro model has been adapted to perform stochastic simulations and highlights important use cases.

Speaker:

Mark Hopkins
Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

3:00 Pm to 3:30 Pm

Break & Demo stations

3:30 PM TO 4:30 PM

U.S. Economic Outlook

House Prices for Block Groups

Urban areas are experiencing rapidly changing housing market conditions. This session presents our research in modelling and projecting demographic and economic conditions and house prices for block groups and individual properties.


Speaker:

Kwame Donaldson
Associate Director - Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics

Global Economic Outlook

Global Debt Loads Get Weightier

Global debt loads are steadily mounting. In the U.S., federal government and corporate debt are increasing.  In China, it is local government debt and debt owed by state owned enterprises. This session examines the changing composition of global leverage and considers the global economic risks.

Speaker:

Steve Cochrane
Senior Director - Chief APAC Economist, Moody's Analytics

Models, Data, and Scenarios

Looking at the Loan-Level

This session examines how consumers recover from delinquency on their auto loan payments. Our partnership with Equifax allows us to use account-level data enables to examine the factors and circumstances associated with account transitions from delinquency back to current status.


Speaker:

Evan Andrews
Associate Director - Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics

4:30 Pm to 4:45 Pm

Break & Demo stations

4:45 Pm to 5:30 Pm

GUEST SPEAKER

5:30 Pm to 9:00 Pm

NETWORKING EVENT

Wilmington Blue Rocks Game

8:30 am to 9:00 am

registration

9:00 am to 10:00 am

Keynote Address

Victor Calanog, Senior Director - Head of CRE Economics, Moody's Analytics

breakout sessions

10:00 AM TO 11:00 AM

U.S. Economic Outlook

Skewing of Household Wealth

The wealth distribution has become increasingly skewed. We construct detailed metro area household balance sheets that show the distribution of assets and liabilities over a broad set of financial and non-financial categories.

Speaker:

Steve Ciccarella
Associate Director - Senior Economist,
Moody's Analytics

Global Economic Outlook

Leveraged Lending Lets Loose

Leveraged lending – loans to below investment grade non-financial corporate borrowers – has expanded rapidly in recent year. The rapid growth of this market hankers back to what happened in housing finance leading up to the financial crisis, raising concerns. Are these concerns warranted?

Speaker:

Ed Friedman
Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Models, Data, and Scenarios

Climate Change in Credit Risk Models

This session explores the relevance of climate risk factors as drivers for credit risk parameters. The aim is to connect climate scenarios to risk management models and test whether these factors are drivers of credit performance. Case studies will be considered covering retail and corporate credit portfolios.

Speaker:

Juan Licari
Managing Director - Chief International Economist, Moody's Analytics

11:00 am to 11:30 am

Break & DEmo stations

11:30 AM TO 12:30 PM

U.S. Economic Outlook

Explaining Poverty

This session examines why poverty is concentrated in particular areas, especially those that are adjacent affluent areas. We examine whether the poverty rate is an adequate measure of economic hardship, what causes a person to be in poverty, and what policies would help lift people out of poverty.

Speakers:

Laura Ratz
Assistant Director - Economist, Moody's Analytics

Marc Korobkin
Economist, Moody's Analytics

Shannon Brobst
Associate Economist, Moody's Analytics

Global Economic Outlook

From Libor to Sofr

Global financial institutions will soon be required to stop using Libor. This session considers the reasons why Libor is being jettisoned and possible replacements, including Sofr. The broad implications of the transition, what it means for our models, and what we are doing to prepare are also considered.

Speaker:

Mike Ferlez
Assistant Director - Economist, Moody's Analytics

Models, Data, and Scenarios

Machine Learning in Modeling Auto Residual

This sessions considers the pros and cons of using machine learning for model development in the context of auto residual values. We will provide insights into auto residual behavior for different vehicle makes and models under multiple economic scenarios.

Speaker:

Mike Brisson
Associate Director - Senior Economist,
Moody's Analytics 
                  

12:30 Pm to 1:15 Pm

LUNCH/LUNCH AND LEARN ROUNDTABLES

1:15 pM TO 2:15 PM

U.S. Economic Outlook

And the Winner Is...

Who wins the upcoming presidential election is key to the economic outlook. President Trump’s policies are 180 degrees different than most of his potential Democratic rivals. This session presents on our presidential election model at the electoral college level and we predict who will be the next president

Speakers:

Dan White
Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

Bernard Yaros
Assistant Director - Economist, Moody's Analytics

Global Economic Outlook

Where's My Jet Pack? Automation and the Productivity Puzzle

Smartphones, robots, internet connectivity, cloud computing, genomics. The list of technological innovation goes on and on.  And yet, productivity growth remains relatively muted. How can this be?  In this session, we’ll explore how automation impacts the labor market and the economy more broadly.

Speakers:

Cris deRitis
Senior Director - Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics

Ed Young
Senior Director - Advisory Services, Moody's Analytics

Models, Data, and Scenarios

Scenario Governance Under CECL

Global bank stress testing and new accounting regimes make economic scenarios increasingly central to critical risk management and financial reporting activities. With this appropriately comes greater scrutiny from regulators and auditors. This session details our scenario governance framework, its implementation, and the tools that support it.

Speakers:

Richard Cross
Director - Database Engineering,
Moody's Analytics

Marissa DiNatale
Senior Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

2:15 Pm to 2:30 Pm

Break & Demo stations

2:30 Pm to 3:30 Pm

regional outlook

Adam Kamins, Senior Director - Economic Research, Moody's Analytics

3:30 Pm to 4:15 Pm

wrap-up session

Top of Agenda

Conference Fees

One Day

$1,095

register now

Clients use code EOCCOMP20 at checkout

Two Days

$1,895

register now

Clients use code EOCCOMP20 at checkout

Venue

Chase Center

815 Justison Street
Wilmington DE 19801
302.425.3929

website

The Chase Center on the Riverfront has a proud and unique heritage. Originally a shipbuilding facility during World War II, it later became the First USA Riverfront Arts Center, hosting world-class exhibitions. In 2005, it transitioned to a multipurpose special events facility, and was renamed Chase Center on the Riverfront.

A key feature of the Chase Center is its direct connection to the luxurious 180-room Westin Wilmington Hotel, which offers extra convenience for event attendees. The center and hotel are both within walking distance of excellent riverfront restaurants, museums, and more!

Hotels

The Westin Wilmington

818 Shipyard Drive
Wilmington DE 19801
302.654.2900

book now

Rate: $202/Night
*Rate available 2 days prior and 1 day after the event. Book by May 11, 2020.

Homewood Suites by Hilton

820 Justison Street
Wilmington DE 19801
302.565.2100

book now

Rate: $199/Night
*Rate available 3 days prior and 3 days after the event. Book by May 2, 2020.

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+1.610.235.5103

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