US Housing Conference 2020
Monday, March 30, 2020
March
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Join the conversation on March 30th at Moody’s US Housing Conference 2020 to engage with senior policy experts, senior industry leaders, and Moody’s analysts to better assess the uncertain future in an important election year.

 

The following industry leaders have participated at our 2019 event:

» Christopher J. Abate, Chief Executive Officer, Redwood Trust

» Michael Bright, President and CEO, Structured Finance Association

» Douglas G. Duncan, Chief Economist, Fannie Mae

» Matthew Jozoff, Managing Director, Head of Securitized Products Research and Rates Research, J.P. Morgan

» Chrystal Kornegay, Executive Director, Massachusetts Housing Finance Agency

» Sheryl Palmer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer,Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

» David P. Singelyn, Chief Executive Officer, American Homes 4 Rent

» David Stevens, Former CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association and Former US Assistant Secretary of Housing and FHA Commissioner

» Stockton Williams, Executive Director, National Council for State Housing Agencies

» Ivy Zelman, Chief Executive Officer, Zelman & Associates

Registration to attend is required.

·      Discussion of the factors currently weighing on housing affordability and implications on the market

·      Focus on the effects of the changing market environment on industry sectors

·      What are the underappreciated risks as interest rates and home prices continue to rise?

8:00 AM     Registration & Breakfast

 

8:00 AM     Pre-Conference Workshop: Enhancing your fundamental credit analysis with Moody’s CreditView

Join us at the workshop to discover how you can improve your analysis of the Housing sector by bringing together credit ratings, research, and data from Moody’s Investors Service, as well as research, data and content from Moody’s Analytics.

Featuring:

Moody’s CreditView – Learn how to gain an understanding of current trends and sector dynamics impacting credit

Moody’s Analytics Data Buffet - Leverage economic, financial and demographic data and forecasts at the national and regional level to evaluate the impact of shocks and differing economic assumptions

Moody’s Analytics Structured Finance Portal Data Viewer - Understand loan-level trends driving credit performance and collateral overlap across deals.

»    Presented by Moody’s Analytics

 

9:00 AM       Welcoming Remarks

»    Gregory W. Bauer, Managing Director, Global Banking, Moody's Investors Service

 

9:10 AM       Opening Address: Economic and Housing Outlook

»    Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics

 

9:40 AM       Macroeconomic Drivers: Demographics, Affordability and Other Trends

This panel will explore the key macroeconomic issues and trends impacting US housing and housing finance over the medium term.

·       What risks are being under-appreciated as interest rates and home prices continue to rise?

·       Are Millennials really ready to start buying homes? Is it time for Boomers to downsize yet?

·       How is the supply story evolving after a period of extremely tight inventories?

·       Will low rates lock owners into homes, reducing sales and mobility?

 

Moderator

»       Atsi Sheth, Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Research, Moody’s Investors Service

 

Speakers

»       Douglas G. Duncan, Chief Economist, Fannie Mae

»       Matthew Jozoff, Managing Director, Head of Securitized Products Research and Rates Research, J.P. Morgan

»       Stockton Williams, Executive Director, National Council for State Housing Agencies

 

10:30 AM       Networking Break

10:50 AM       Federal Housing Policy: Impact of Administrative Reform

This panel will discuss how a change in leadership at FHFA, or further actions at HUD and FHA, could impact housing and housing finance.

·      Which market segments could be most impacted by administrative reform?

·      How should housing and housing finance businesses prepare for potential changes in federal housing policy?

·      Will federal housing policy support a reemerging private label RMBS market?

·      Impact of GSE initiatives including GSE capital framework, common securitization platform and credit risk transfer transactions

 

Moderator

»        Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics

 

Speaker

»        Michael Bright, President and CEO, Structured Finance Industry Group

»        David Stevens, Former CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association and Former US Assistant Secretary of Housing and FHA Commissioner

 

11:35 AM        Market Leaders’ Responses: Finding Opportunities Amid Challenges

This panel will highlight how home builders, lenders, landlords, housing finance authorities and others are approaching the current environment and preparing for what comes next.

·      How are practitioners responding to macroeconomic and demographic trends?

·      What “disruption” is actually having an impact?

·      What do industry leaders expect from the next stage of policy changes?

·      Who feels best about where they currently sit in the market?

 

Moderator

»       Gail Sussman, Managing Director, US Public Finance, Moody’s Investors Service

 

Speakers

»        Christopher J. Abate, Chief Executive Officer, Redwood Trust Inc.

»        Chrystal Kornegay, Executive Director, Massachusetts Housing Finance Agency

»        Sheryl Palmer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

»        David P. Singelyn, Chief Executive Officer, American Homes 4 Rent

 

12:35 PM        Networking Lunch

1:30 PM          Keynote Address

A leading industry advisor offers her view on the emerging demographic and affordability developments that will shape the future landscape, highlighting hidden kernels for investors and issuers.

 »       Ivy Zelman, Chief Executive Officer, Zelman & Associates

 

2:15 PM        BREAKOUT SESSIONS I

Session A: Environmental and Social Considerations in Housing

Coastal floods and wildfires have raised awareness of catastrophe exposure and insurability issues for some properties. Housing has become a key social concern for states and municipalities as affordability and homelessness become focal issues. This breakout session will cover the implications for lenders, servicers, home builders, REITs, property and casualty insurers, and the securitization market.

·      Will the increasing incidence of floods and wildfires put insurers at risk?

·      What is the role of housing finance agencies as they work with states and municipalities to address housing needs?

·      How insurance, reps and warranties, and servicers’ response mitigate natural disaster risk for RMBS

 

Session B: Home Builders: Declining Affordability Slows Demand Growth

This session will discuss the expected slower demand growth in the homebuilding industry; declining affordability due to rising home prices and homeownership costs weighing on the home buying decision; rising land prices and raw material costs combined with reduced pricing power of homebuilders putting margins at risk; housing fundamentals remaining strong with solid employment levels, consumer confidence and household income growth.

·      Increasing home prices and formerly rising mortgage rates have reduced affordability, yielding slower growth for the industry

·      Land, labor, materials costs rising, homebuilder pricing power declining

·      However, underlying housing fundamentals, including demographics and employment, remain sound

Session C: Evolving Trends in U.S. Rental Markets – A Cross-Sector Perspective

What impact will the evolving trends in the rental market have on the performance and decision-making of REITs, housing finance agencies and multifamily and single-family rental securitizations? This session will put a particular emphasis on affordability and demographic trends.

·       What is the future of affordability and how will it affect the rental market?

·       How will changing demographics influence different rental sectors?

·       What are the drivers for future growth?

 

Session D: Opportunities and Challenges Lie Ahead for the RMBS Market

This breakout session will focus on how the RMBS market is faring in the more difficult lending environment, where declining origination volumes are driving gradual loosening of underwriting and a push to optimize processes, and how shrinking of the GSE footprint may provide opportunities for growth.

·       Origination, issuance and performance trends for prime, re-performing, and reverse mortgages and more

·       GSE-eligible collateral in private-label deals and GSE tools used in private-label underwriting blur the lines between prime and risk-transfer deals

·       If the GSE footprint shrinks, is the RMBS market ready for growth?

·       What to expect from LIBOR phase-out

3:10 PM       BREAKOUT SESSIONS II

Session E: Disruptive Technologies and their Impact on Housing and Housing Finance


Technology often changes and disrupts the norm. This session will address what is in store and how it will play an increasing role in property valuations.

·       What are the potential credit implications for lenders, servicers, home builders, REITs, public housing agencies, mortgage insurers and the securitization markets?

·       What “disruption” is actually having an impact on the housing and housing finance markets?

·       How are eClosings and eMortgages changing the housing finance business landscape?

 

Session F: State Housing Finance Agencies Adjust to Changing Landscape

This breakout session will discuss how the changes in the housing markets, bond markets, and national housing affordability challenges are impacting HFA production, financing models and HFA’s financial performance outlook.

·       HFA bonds issuance trends and drivers

·       Loan originations and products

·       Expectations for credit and financial performance

 

Session G:  Will Weak Mortgage Originator Profitability Reshape the Mortgage Lending Industry?

The mortgage lending market has shifted dramatically from banks to non-bank mortgage companies over the last several years. However, over the last year or so, gain-on-sale margins have declined significantly as origination volumes have declined reducing profitability dramatically at non-bank mortgage companies. This breakout session will explore the implications of depressed originator profitability. 

·       How may the mortgage lending landscape change over the next several years?

·       Is this an opportunity for banks to regain market share?

·       Will gain on sale margins improve as overcapacity declines or will stronger profitability only be achieved through technology and reducing costs?

 

Session H: Regional Housing Market Outlook: Divergence Continues

This breakout session will focus on the regional variations from the overall U.S. housing outlook. While the U.S.will experience slower price growth and level sales over the next 2-3 years,there are sharp divergences.

·       U.S. house prices are not seriously overvalued, but in some metro areas, over-valuation is a serious concern.

·       Affordability is good for the U.S. on average, but remains a serious problem in the Pacific coast and parts of the Northeast.

·       Rental affordability over the past four years has improved in most areas except for coastal metro areas with slower income growth. Longer term, rental affordability is still a problem for most coastal regions, dragging on the ability of potential buyers to accumulate savings for a down payment.

4:00 PM       Conclusion

8:00 AM     Registration & Breakfast

 

8:00 AM     Pre-Conference Workshop: Enhancing your fundamental credit analysis with Moody’s CreditView

Join us at the workshop to discover how you can improve your analysis of the Housing sector by bringing together credit ratings, research, and data from Moody’s Investors Service, as well as research, data and content from Moody’s Analytics.

Featuring:

Moody’s CreditView – Learn how to gain an understanding of current trends and sector dynamics impacting credit

Moody’s Analytics Data Buffet - Leverage economic, financial and demographic data and forecasts at the national and regional level to evaluate the impact of shocks and differing economic assumptions

Moody’s Analytics Structured Finance Portal Data Viewer - Understand loan-level trends driving credit performance and collateral overlap across deals.

»    Presented by Moody’s Analytics

 

9:00 AM       Welcoming Remarks

»    Gregory W. Bauer, Managing Director, Global Banking, Moody's Investors Service

 

9:10 AM       Opening Address: Economic and Housing Outlook

»    Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics

 

9:40 AM       Macroeconomic Drivers: Demographics, Affordability and Other Trends

This panel will explore the key macroeconomic issues and trends impacting US housing and housing finance over the medium term.

·       What risks are being under-appreciated as interest rates and home prices continue to rise?

·       Are Millennials really ready to start buying homes? Is it time for Boomers to downsize yet?

·       How is the supply story evolving after a period of extremely tight inventories?

·       Will low rates lock owners into homes, reducing sales and mobility?

 

Moderator

»       Atsi Sheth, Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Research, Moody’s Investors Service

 

Speakers

»       Douglas G. Duncan, Chief Economist, Fannie Mae

»       Matthew Jozoff, Managing Director, Head of Securitized Products Research and Rates Research, J.P. Morgan

»       Stockton Williams, Executive Director, National Council for State Housing Agencies

 

10:30 AM       Networking Break

10:50 AM       Federal Housing Policy: Impact of Administrative Reform

This panel will discuss how a change in leadership at FHFA, or further actions at HUD and FHA, could impact housing and housing finance.

·      Which market segments could be most impacted by administrative reform?

·      How should housing and housing finance businesses prepare for potential changes in federal housing policy?

·      Will federal housing policy support a reemerging private label RMBS market?

·      Impact of GSE initiatives including GSE capital framework, common securitization platform and credit risk transfer transactions

 

Moderator

»        Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics

 

Speaker

»        Michael Bright, President and CEO, Structured Finance Industry Group

»        David Stevens, Former CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association and Former US Assistant Secretary of Housing and FHA Commissioner

 

11:35 AM        Market Leaders’ Responses: Finding Opportunities Amid Challenges

This panel will highlight how home builders, lenders, landlords, housing finance authorities and others are approaching the current environment and preparing for what comes next.

·      How are practitioners responding to macroeconomic and demographic trends?

·      What “disruption” is actually having an impact?

·      What do industry leaders expect from the next stage of policy changes?

·      Who feels best about where they currently sit in the market?

 

Moderator

»       Gail Sussman, Managing Director, US Public Finance, Moody’s Investors Service

 

Speakers

»        Christopher J. Abate, Chief Executive Officer, Redwood Trust Inc.

»        Chrystal Kornegay, Executive Director, Massachusetts Housing Finance Agency

»        Sheryl Palmer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

»        David P. Singelyn, Chief Executive Officer, American Homes 4 Rent

 

12:35 PM        Networking Lunch

1:30 PM          Keynote Address

A leading industry advisor offers her view on the emerging demographic and affordability developments that will shape the future landscape, highlighting hidden kernels for investors and issuers.

 »       Ivy Zelman, Chief Executive Officer, Zelman & Associates

 

2:15 PM        BREAKOUT SESSIONS I

Session A: Environmental and Social Considerations in Housing

Coastal floods and wildfires have raised awareness of catastrophe exposure and insurability issues for some properties. Housing has become a key social concern for states and municipalities as affordability and homelessness become focal issues. This breakout session will cover the implications for lenders, servicers, home builders, REITs, property and casualty insurers, and the securitization market.

·      Will the increasing incidence of floods and wildfires put insurers at risk?

·      What is the role of housing finance agencies as they work with states and municipalities to address housing needs?

·      How insurance, reps and warranties, and servicers’ response mitigate natural disaster risk for RMBS

 

Session B: Home Builders: Declining Affordability Slows Demand Growth

This session will discuss the expected slower demand growth in the homebuilding industry; declining affordability due to rising home prices and homeownership costs weighing on the home buying decision; rising land prices and raw material costs combined with reduced pricing power of homebuilders putting margins at risk; housing fundamentals remaining strong with solid employment levels, consumer confidence and household income growth.

·      Increasing home prices and formerly rising mortgage rates have reduced affordability, yielding slower growth for the industry

·      Land, labor, materials costs rising, homebuilder pricing power declining

·      However, underlying housing fundamentals, including demographics and employment, remain sound

Session C: Evolving Trends in U.S. Rental Markets – A Cross-Sector Perspective

What impact will the evolving trends in the rental market have on the performance and decision-making of REITs, housing finance agencies and multifamily and single-family rental securitizations? This session will put a particular emphasis on affordability and demographic trends.

·       What is the future of affordability and how will it affect the rental market?

·       How will changing demographics influence different rental sectors?

·       What are the drivers for future growth?

 

Session D: Opportunities and Challenges Lie Ahead for the RMBS Market

This breakout session will focus on how the RMBS market is faring in the more difficult lending environment, where declining origination volumes are driving gradual loosening of underwriting and a push to optimize processes, and how shrinking of the GSE footprint may provide opportunities for growth.

·       Origination, issuance and performance trends for prime, re-performing, and reverse mortgages and more

·       GSE-eligible collateral in private-label deals and GSE tools used in private-label underwriting blur the lines between prime and risk-transfer deals

·       If the GSE footprint shrinks, is the RMBS market ready for growth?

·       What to expect from LIBOR phase-out

3:10 PM       BREAKOUT SESSIONS II

Session E: Disruptive Technologies and their Impact on Housing and Housing Finance


Technology often changes and disrupts the norm. This session will address what is in store and how it will play an increasing role in property valuations.

·       What are the potential credit implications for lenders, servicers, home builders, REITs, public housing agencies, mortgage insurers and the securitization markets?

·       What “disruption” is actually having an impact on the housing and housing finance markets?

·       How are eClosings and eMortgages changing the housing finance business landscape?

 

Session F: State Housing Finance Agencies Adjust to Changing Landscape

This breakout session will discuss how the changes in the housing markets, bond markets, and national housing affordability challenges are impacting HFA production, financing models and HFA’s financial performance outlook.

·       HFA bonds issuance trends and drivers

·       Loan originations and products

·       Expectations for credit and financial performance

 

Session G:  Will Weak Mortgage Originator Profitability Reshape the Mortgage Lending Industry?

The mortgage lending market has shifted dramatically from banks to non-bank mortgage companies over the last several years. However, over the last year or so, gain-on-sale margins have declined significantly as origination volumes have declined reducing profitability dramatically at non-bank mortgage companies. This breakout session will explore the implications of depressed originator profitability. 

·       How may the mortgage lending landscape change over the next several years?

·       Is this an opportunity for banks to regain market share?

·       Will gain on sale margins improve as overcapacity declines or will stronger profitability only be achieved through technology and reducing costs?

 

Session H: Regional Housing Market Outlook: Divergence Continues

This breakout session will focus on the regional variations from the overall U.S. housing outlook. While the U.S.will experience slower price growth and level sales over the next 2-3 years,there are sharp divergences.

·       U.S. house prices are not seriously overvalued, but in some metro areas, over-valuation is a serious concern.

·       Affordability is good for the U.S. on average, but remains a serious problem in the Pacific coast and parts of the Northeast.

·       Rental affordability over the past four years has improved in most areas except for coastal metro areas with slower income growth. Longer term, rental affordability is still a problem for most coastal regions, dragging on the ability of potential buyers to accumulate savings for a down payment.

4:00 PM       Conclusion

Featured Speakers

Ivy Zelman
Chief Executive Officer

Guest Speaker

Zelman & Associates LLC

Guest Speaker

Zelman & Associates LLC

Chief Executive Officer
Ivy Zelman
Christopher J. Abate
Chief Executive Officer

Guest Speaker

Redwood Trust

Guest Speaker

Redwood Trust

Chief Executive Officer
Christopher J. Abate
Michael Bright
President and CEO

Guest Speaker

SFIG

Guest Speaker

SFIG

President and CEO
Michael Bright
Douglas Duncan
Chief Economist

Guest Speaker

Fannie Mae

Guest Speaker

Fannie Mae

Chief Economist
Douglas Duncan
Matthew Jozoff
Managing Director, Head of Securitized Products Research and Rates Research

Guest Speaker

JP Morgan

Guest Speaker

JP Morgan

Managing Director, Head of Securitized Products Research and Rates Research
Matthew Jozoff
Chrystal Kornegay
Executive Director

Guest Speaker

MassHousing

Guest Speaker

MassHousing

Executive Director
Chrystal Kornegay
Sheryl Palmer
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Guest Speaker

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

Guest Speaker

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Sheryl Palmer
David Singelyn
Chief Executive Officer

Guest Speaker

American Homes 4 Rent

Guest Speaker

American Homes 4 Rent

Chief Executive Officer
David Singelyn
Stockton Williams
Executive Director

Guest Speaker

National Council for State Housing Agencies

Guest Speaker

National Council for State Housing Agencies

Executive Director
Stockton Williams
Mark Zandi
Chief Economist

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Chief Economist
Mark Zandi

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Minsun Pak

Assistant Director - MIS Events and Outreach

Global Marketing & Events

minsun.pak@moodys.com