8:00 AMRegistration & Breakfast
8:00 AMPre-Conference Workshop: Explore Recent Enhancements of Moody's CreditView for U.S. Public Finance
Discover how to improve your credit analysis on muni assets by bringing together credit ratings, research and data within Moody’s CreditView.
» Presented by Moody’s Analytics
9:00 AMWelcoming Remarks
» Gregory W. Bauer, Managing Director, Global Banking, Moody’s Investors Service
9:10 AMOpening Keynote Address
» Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics
9:40 AMFannie and Freddie’s Future: 2020 and Beyond
This session will explore potential GSE reforms,their likelihood of coming to pass, and their potential effects on the US housing and housing finance markets and the entities that operate within them.
- What will the GSEs post conservatorship look like?
- Which administrative reform steps could have the biggest impacts?
- What does the current state of affairs mean for the GSEs themselves?
- How are the GSEs shaping the broader mortgage market, and will that change if reforms move forward?
10:30 AMNetworking Break
10:50 AMFocus on Downside Risks
This panel will discuss a wide range of risks to the housing and housing finance markets, reflecting both recent trends and ongoing sector dynamics.
- When the next recession arrives, how bad will it be for housing-related sectors relative to past downturns?
- What do stretched affordability, reduced supply and low turnover mean for housing activity and other dynamics?
- Amid new rent control initiatives and a renewed focus on zoning and land use, what potential policy changes deserve to be on your radar?
- Environmental risks are real and growing: What do you need to know?
» Anne Van Praagh, Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Research, Moody’s Investors Service
» Sean Breslin, Chief Operating Officer, AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
» Steve Hilton, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Meritage Homes Corporation
» RuthAnne Visnauskas, Commissioner/CEO, NYS Homes and Community Renewal
11:40 AMIndustry Leaders’ Responses to Change
This panel will discuss new business models, new technology uses, new regulations, and other potential headwinds or tailwinds for companies involved in the housing or housing finance markets.
- Where and how are the “disruptors” changing competitive dynamics, if at all?
- Which technologies are having a big impact now, and which could still eventually shake up markets?
- How will new business models, processes and tools impact the mortgage origination process?
- Which “old school” considerations will be important to keep in mind?
» Luisa De Gaetano, Associate Managing Director, RMBS, Moody’s Investors Service
» Bill Emerson, Vice Chairman, Quicken Loans and Rock Holdings, Inc.
» Ryan Schneider, PhD, President and Chief Executive Officer, Realogy Holdings
» Faith Schwartz, President, Housing Finance Strategies
12:30 PMNetworking Lunch
1:30 PMAfternoon Keynote Address
2:00 PMDessert and Coffee
2:15 PMBREAKOUT SESSIONS I
Session A: Homebuilders’ Resiliency to Risks in an Evolving Environment
This session will discuss how resilient homebuilders’ are today to risks associated with an evolving environment, and potentially weaker economy, from the perspective of strategy, financial profile and liquidity, supply-demand characteristics, cost pressures and profitability. The discussion will also highlight strengths and vulnerabilities of credit profiles and business models, and review competitive industry environment and repair & remodeling trends.
- Readiness of homebuilders to a potential weakening economic environment; their current positioning versus the crisis; ability to adapt.
- Strengths and vulnerabilities of business models and strategies.
- Persistently high input costs. What are the pressure points?
- Existing home sale environment and repair & remodeling trends
Session B: Cross-Sector Perspectives on Evolving Trends in the Rental Market
This session will explore the impacts of evolving trends in the rental market on the performance and decision-making of apartment REITs and multifamily/single-family rental securitizations, with a particular emphasis on affordability and demographic trends.
- What is the future of affordability and how will it affect the rental market?
- How will changing demographics influence different rental sectors?
- What are the drivers for future growth?
Session C: State HFAs’ Response to the Affordable Housing Crisis: What’s the Credit Impact?
This session will address the potential credit impacts as HFAs increase their production and subsidies in response to an affordable housing crisis created by increasing home prices, rising rental rates and relatively slow wage growth.
- Single family down payment assistance funding sources and repayment
- Multifamily financing and subsidy strategies
- Influence of outside partners on HFA production
- Expectations for credit and financial performance
Session D: The Evolution of RMBS: Recent Trends and Potential Changes Ahead
This session will cover recent trends in US residential mortgage securitization, potential upcoming changes and what they mean for credit and volumes This session .will also include discussions of collateral quality and performance in the various RMBS sectors.
- Growth of non-QM PLS across the credit spectrum
- GSE, mortgage insurance, and bank CRT
- Considerations on ESG risks
- How the use of technology can impact credit risk and performance
- Trends in originators’ and servicers’ business models
3:10 PMBREAKOUT SESSIONS II
Group E: Managing environmental risks in a changing climate
How vulnerable is US housing and housing finance to the impacts of climate change? This session will discuss how the increased frequency of coastal flooding and wildfires is changing how insurers and reinsurers assess and price property risk exposures and the role insurance can play in developing climate change risk adaptation strategies.
- What are the implications of climate change for the US housing market?
- How are reinsurers adapting their catastrophe risk models to account for climate change?
- What are the main challenges in closing the insurance “protection gap”?
Group F: Regional Single-Family Housing Market Outlook
This session will focus on the regional differences in the U.S. single-family housing outlook. While the U.S. is expected to experience slower price and sales growth over the next 2-3 years, there is considerable variation. In a highly interactive session we will address questions such as:
- Where are US house prices over- or undervalued the most? And what’s the outlook?
- Which markets are most and least affordable? How could this impact home sales and construction trends?
- What are current trends in rental affordability? Where has it improved and worsened? How is rental affordability impacting the ability of potential buyers to save for a down payment?
- What do demographic trends suggest for future single-family housing demand? How will trends toward smaller family sizes and increased multigenerational housing play out?
- How might investor considerations for climate change and ESG impact the single-family housing market?
Group G: The Future of Multifamily Housing
This session will discuss demand drivers and key supply-side issues affecting performance indicators for multifamily markets in the US. While there are short-run supply issues for some markets, in general demographic trends suggest a relatively strong outlook for the intermediate (5-10 year) horizon.
- More than a decade of economic growth has pushed vacancy rates to near-historic lows in several markets. Developers have responded by bringing product to market, but financing sources have helped constrain supply excesses.
- Affordability remains an issue given ten years of relatively strong rent growth, and issues surrounding rent regulation and its implementation darken the outlook for certain markets.
- Multifamily remains a favored asset class in the commercial real estate space, but for how long? What are the other options out there?
Group H: The End of Libor: Transition Impacts and Operational Readiness
This session will focus on the impact on and readiness of mortgage lenders, servicers, housing finance agencies, and securitization participants to the proposed 2021 retirement of Libor.
- Libor Replacement: SOFR and other indices
- Legacy Contracts Amendments
- Operational Readiness for servicers, lenders, and issuers
- Credit Impact
4:00 PMConclusion and Networking Reception