Moody’s 2019 China Credit Outlook
Wednesday, June 26, 2019
June
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Moody’s 2019 China Credit Outlook

China credit: an increasingly diversified landscape

June 2019
Wednesday, June 26, 2019
Conrad Hong Kong
Hong Kong

Get behind China's credit story

Common trends will shape credit for Chinese issuers over the next 12-18 months, but with increasingly different outcomes. A slowing economy, trade tensions and government policy will impact regions and sectors differently, particularly in terms of revenue growth, leverage and funding conditions.  

We bring together an unrivaled group of analysts and leading market participants. It is the event where those interested in getting behind the numbers and understanding key market trends meet.

<div class="credit-themes-container dynamic"><div class="w-container"><div class="custom-fa-wrapper"><div class="custom-item-holder"><div class="custom-icon-fa"><br></div><div class="custom-item-text-holder"><h1 class="custom-item-heading alt white">Discover</h1><p class="custom-item-para alt white">Discover fresh perspectives on the credit markets.</p></div></div><div class="custom-item-holder"><div class="custom-icon-fa"><br></div><div class="custom-item-text-holder"><h1 class="custom-item-heading alt white">Analyze</h1><p class="custom-item-para alt white">Analyse which trends will have the most significant impact in the year ahead.</p></div></div><div class="custom-item-holder"><div class="custom-icon-fa"><br></div><div class="custom-item-text-holder"><h1 class="custom-item-heading alt white">Network</h1><p class="custom-item-para alt white">Network with the top Moody's analysts and key market participants.</p></div></div></div></div></div>

Agenda

09:00 Opening

09:10 - 09:50

Presentation:
Pressure mounting on growth, policy response aims to manage policy objectives 

• How is the uncertain policy environment affecting the global macro outlook?
• How do the trade dispute and broader economic relationship with the US impact China’s growth and sovereign credit?
• Will the policy trade-off between growth and reform persist?
• How have the credit strengths and weakness of the Chinese sovereign evolved?

Michael Taylor, Managing Director and Chief Credit Officer, APAC, Moody’s

09:50 - 10:20

Fireside chat:
Chinese banks – Outlook stable, credit trends diverging among large and smaller banks

• What are the key drivers of the stable operating environment?
• What are the trends in asset risk, as the recognition of such risk tightens?
• When will China implement TLAC, after the inaugural issuance of perpetual bonds in 2019?

Ray Heung, Senior VP, Financial Institutions Group, Moody's

Sonny Hsu, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Financial Institutions Group, Moody's

10:20 - 10:40 Coffee break

10:40 - 11:30

Panel discussion:
Funding new public infrastructure projects: the credit impact on regional & local governments (RLGs) and LGFVs

• Which sectors and regions have the largest infrastructure  investment needs?
• Can the increased bond issuance quota for RLGs meet these funding needs?
• Will implicit support for LGFVs strengthen and contingent liabilities in RLG increase over the next 12-18 months?
• How will offshore debt shape the credit profiles of LGFVs?

Ivan Chung, Associate Managing Director, Head of Greater China Credit and Research Analysis, Moody’s (moderator)

Kai Hu, Senior VP, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s

Chenyi Lu, VP - Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s

Ivy Poon,VP - Senior Analyst, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group, Moody’s

More distinguished panelists to be confirmed

11:30 - 12:20

Panel discussion:
Credit differentiation will intensify among corporate issuers

• Ongoing bond defaults have increased investor risk aversion
• Supportive policies and improved onshore funding environment mainly benefit stronger and leading corporate issuers
• How will the slowing economy, trade tensions and refinancing needs impact corporate credit quality?
• Will defaults continue to rise in 2019, and what sectors are more exposed?

Ivan Chung, Associate Managing Director, Head of Greater China Credit and Research Analysis, Moody’s (moderator)

Steve Wang, Director, Senior Credit Analyst, CITIC CLSA

Lina Choi, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s

Nino Siu, VP - Senior Analyst, Greater China Credit Research and Analysis, Moody’s

Ivy Poon,VP - Senior Analyst, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group, Moody’s

12:20 Closing

Agenda

09:00 Opening

09:10 - 09:50

Presentation:
Pressure mounting on growth, policy response aims to manage policy objectives 

• How is the uncertain policy environment affecting the global macro outlook?
• How do the trade dispute and broader economic relationship with the US impact China’s growth and sovereign credit?
• Will the policy trade-off between growth and reform persist?
• How have the credit strengths and weakness of the Chinese sovereign evolved?

Michael Taylor, Managing Director and Chief Credit Officer, APAC, Moody’s

09:50 - 10:20

Fireside chat:
Chinese banks – Outlook stable, credit trends diverging among large and smaller banks

• What are the key drivers of the stable operating environment?
• What are the trends in asset risk, as the recognition of such risk tightens?
• When will China implement TLAC, after the inaugural issuance of perpetual bonds in 2019?

Ray Heung, Senior VP, Financial Institutions Group, Moody's

Sonny Hsu, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Financial Institutions Group, Moody's

10:20 - 10:40 Coffee break

10:40 - 11:30

Panel discussion:
Funding new public infrastructure projects: the credit impact on regional & local governments (RLGs) and LGFVs

• Which sectors and regions have the largest infrastructure  investment needs?
• Can the increased bond issuance quota for RLGs meet these funding needs?
• Will implicit support for LGFVs strengthen and contingent liabilities in RLG increase over the next 12-18 months?
• How will offshore debt shape the credit profiles of LGFVs?

Ivan Chung, Associate Managing Director, Head of Greater China Credit and Research Analysis, Moody’s (moderator)

Kai Hu, Senior VP, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s

Chenyi Lu, VP - Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s

Ivy Poon,VP - Senior Analyst, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group, Moody’s

More distinguished panelists to be confirmed

11:30 - 12:20

Panel discussion:
Credit differentiation will intensify among corporate issuers

• Ongoing bond defaults have increased investor risk aversion
• Supportive policies and improved onshore funding environment mainly benefit stronger and leading corporate issuers
• How will the slowing economy, trade tensions and refinancing needs impact corporate credit quality?
• Will defaults continue to rise in 2019, and what sectors are more exposed?

Ivan Chung, Associate Managing Director, Head of Greater China Credit and Research Analysis, Moody’s (moderator)

Steve Wang, Director, Senior Credit Analyst, CITIC CLSA

Lina Choi, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s

Nino Siu, VP - Senior Analyst, Greater China Credit Research and Analysis, Moody’s

Ivy Poon,VP - Senior Analyst, Project & Infrastructure Finance Group, Moody’s

12:20 Closing

Speakers

Featured Speakers

Steve Wang
Senior Credit Analyst

External Organisation

CITIC CLSA

External Organisation

CITIC CLSA

Senior Credit Analyst
Steve Wang

Speakers

Michael Taylor
Managing Director and Chief Credit Officer,
Asia Pacific

Moody's Investors Service

Moody's Investors Service

Asia Pacific
Managing Director and Chief Credit Officer,
Michael Taylor
Ivan Chung
Associate Managing Director / Representative Director – Hong Kong
Head, Greater China Credit Research & Analysis

Moody's Investors Service

Moody's Investors Service

Head, Greater China Credit Research & Analysis
Associate Managing Director / Representative Director – Hong Kong
Ivan Chung
Ray Heung
Senior Vice President
Financial Institutions Group

Moody's Investors Service

Moody's Investors Service

Financial Institutions Group
Senior Vice President
Ray Heung
Sonny Hsu
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group

Moody's Investors Service

Moody's Investors Service

Financial Institutions Group
Vice President - Senior Credit Officer
Sonny Hsu
Kai Hu
Senior Vice President
Corporate Finance Group

Moody's Investors Service

Moody's Investors Service

Corporate Finance Group
Senior Vice President
Kai Hu
Chenyi Lu
Vice President – Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group

Moody's Investors Service

Moody's Investors Service

Corporate Finance Group
Vice President – Senior Credit Officer
Chenyi Lu
Ivy Poon
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Project Infrastructure Finance Group

Moody's Investors Service

Moody's Investors Service

Project Infrastructure Finance Group
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Ivy Poon
Lina Choi
Senior Vice President
Corporate Finance Group

Moody's Investors Service

Moody's Investors Service

Corporate Finance Group
Senior Vice President
Lina Choi
Nino Siu
Vice President – Senior Analyst
Greater China Credit Research and Analysis

Moody's Investors Service

Moody's Investors Service

Greater China Credit Research and Analysis
Vice President – Senior Analyst
Nino Siu

If you require any further information about the event, please contact:

Anita So

Manager – Events & Outreach, MIS Events APAC

anita.so@moodys.com

Location

Conrad Hong Kong, Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Admiralty, Hong Kong