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OVERVIEW

Now more than ever it is critical to connect and talk about real-time risk management and business challenges that organizations are facing. Moody’s Analytics experts and your peers will address recent changes in the credit market and discuss new approaches to credit risk management.

The discussion topics will include:

Virtual User Forum Experience

Questions? 

Contact Anita Wai

<div class="section-body-module-b-2"> <div class="container-1200"> <p class="body-b---info"><strong>Our presenters have recorded their sessions for your convenience. Please watch these posted videos and come prepared on Thursday to discuss the content.&nbsp;</strong></p> <table style="height: 171px;" width="544"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width: 263.787px;"> <p>&nbsp;<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/463614914" width="384" height="216" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowfullscreen></iframe></p> </td> <td style="width: 264.683px;">&nbsp; <iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/463534520" width="384" height="216" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowfullscreen></iframe></td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 263.787px;"> <p>&nbsp;<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/463926349" width="384" height="216" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowfullscreen></iframe></p> </tp> <td style="width: 264.683px;">&nbsp; <iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/463189236" width="384" height="216" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowfullscreen></iframe></td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 263.787px;"> <p>&nbsp;<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/463061320" width="384" height="216" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowfullscreen></iframe></p> </td> <td style="width: 264.683px;">&nbsp;<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/463151428" width="384" height="216" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowfullscreen></iframe></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p>

Agenda

1:00 PM ETWelcome and Opening Remarks

Speaker: Irina Baron, Director

1:10 PM ETKeynote Address: CRE Landscape in Times of COVID-19

The COVID-19 debacle and resulting government actions have impacted global and local conditions significantly. What should we expect moving forward, for performance metrics in multifamily and commercial real estate? What risks can we quantify, and what uncertainties remain – and how might future changes in outlook impact your portfolio’s loss estimates and allowances?

Speaker: Victor Calanog, PhD, Head of CRE Economics

1:50 PM ETBreak

Breakout Sessions One

2:00 PM ETBreakout 1A: Beyond the Headlines: Hotels

Hotel Occupancy rates are down, but is it really that bad? Join us as we dig beneath the headline numbers to look for nuance within the sector and explore topics such as:

  • Variation in stress by tier and geography
  • The potential ramifications of a “lost” Autumn business/conference season
  • Changes to the long-term outlook due to structural shifts in how, when, and where we travel for business and leisure

Speakers: Hsiao-Shan Yang, Ph.D., Senior Economist; Thomas LaSalvia, Ph.D., Senior Economist

Breakout 1B: Staying One Step Ahead – The Power of Combining Credit Ratings & CRE Fundamentals

In this session we will explore how combining Moody’s Investors Service credit ratings of tenants and REIS submarket forecasts creates a powerful analytical tool on top of standard performance analysis. We will also highlight upcoming REIS platform enhancements that will enable CRE analysts to research tenant credit ratings at the asset level.

Speakers: Catherine Keeter, Director of Data Strategy; Vivek Thadani, Director of Product Strategy

Breakout 1C: Managing the Performance of a CRE Portfolio in Uncertain Times

There have been only two economic downturns in the last 30 years with a material impact on the credit risk in CRE. The third has just begun. Join us as we explore a case-study based approach to assessing risk and managing the performance of a commercial and multifamily in today's challenging economic environment.

Speakers: Chris Henkel, Senior Director

2:45 PM ETBreak

Breakout Sessions Two

2:55 PM ETBreakout 2A: Assessing Climate Impacts on CRE Markets

Understanding the effects of a changing climate on the commercial real estate sector is an important new area of concern for both investors and lenders. In this session we will share our initiatives to account for climate risk in the context of CRE collateral performance and show how these insights can be incorporated into your existing CRE credit risk modeling framework.

Speakers: Eric Bao, Director of Research; Jake Carr, Associate Director of Research


Breakout 2B: An Examination of Recent Delinquency Trend of Commercial Real Estate Loan Portfolios

COVID-19 continues to have unprecedented impact on Commercial Real Estate (CRE) industry. Given the public health measures to combat the spread of the virus, CRE industry is facing tremendous challenges. In this session, we will share our findings on the recent delinquency trend of portfolios in major CRE lender groups, and discuss the risks and uncertainties down the road.

Speakers: Wenjing Wang, Director of Research; David Salz, Director - Data Strategist


Breakout 2C: CRE Loan Portfolio Losses and Allowances

Despite unprecedented monetary and fiscal relief programs to stimulate the economy, we have observed and expect to continue to observe elevated default and loss rates for CRE loans over the next several years. We recently revised our credit loss estimates based on the latest data for the CRE loan portfolios held on the balance sheets of financial institutions. We will compare and discuss loss estimates from the baseline forecast and alternative scenarios.

Speakers: Jun Chen, Senior Director of Research; Megha Watugala, Director of Research

3:40 PM ETClosing Remarks

Agenda

1:00 PM ETWelcome and Opening Remarks

Speaker: Irina Baron, Director

1:10 PM ETKeynote Address: CRE Landscape in Times of COVID-19

The COVID-19 debacle and resulting government actions have impacted global and local conditions significantly. What should we expect moving forward, for performance metrics in multifamily and commercial real estate? What risks can we quantify, and what uncertainties remain – and how might future changes in outlook impact your portfolio’s loss estimates and allowances?

Speaker: Victor Calanog, PhD, Head of CRE Economics

1:50 PM ETBreak

Breakout Sessions One

2:00 PM ETBreakout 1A: Beyond the Headlines: Hotels

Hotel Occupancy rates are down, but is it really that bad? Join us as we dig beneath the headline numbers to look for nuance within the sector and explore topics such as:

Speakers: Hsiao-Shan Yang, Ph.D., Senior Economist; Thomas LaSalvia, Ph.D., Senior Economist

Breakout 1B: Staying One Step Ahead – The Power of Combining Credit Ratings & CRE Fundamentals

In this session we will explore how combining Moody’s Investors Service credit ratings of tenants and REIS submarket forecasts creates a powerful analytical tool on top of standard performance analysis. We will also highlight upcoming REIS platform enhancements that will enable CRE analysts to research tenant credit ratings at the asset level.

Speakers: Catherine Keeter, Director of Data Strategy; Vivek Thadani, Director of Product Strategy

Breakout 1C: Managing the Performance of a CRE Portfolio in Uncertain Times

There have been only two economic downturns in the last 30 years with a material impact on the credit risk in CRE. The third has just begun. Join us as we explore a case-study based approach to assessing risk and managing the performance of a commercial and multifamily in today's challenging economic environment.

Speakers: Chris Henkel, Senior Director

2:45 PM ETBreak

Breakout Sessions Two

2:55 PM ETBreakout 2A: Assessing Climate Impacts on CRE Markets

Understanding the effects of a changing climate on the commercial real estate sector is an important new area of concern for both investors and lenders. In this session we will share our initiatives to account for climate risk in the context of CRE collateral performance and show how these insights can be incorporated into your existing CRE credit risk modeling framework.

Speakers: Eric Bao, Director of Research; Jake Carr, Associate Director of Research


Breakout 2B: An Examination of Recent Delinquency Trend of Commercial Real Estate Loan Portfolios

COVID-19 continues to have unprecedented impact on Commercial Real Estate (CRE) industry. Given the public health measures to combat the spread of the virus, CRE industry is facing tremendous challenges. In this session, we will share our findings on the recent delinquency trend of portfolios in major CRE lender groups, and discuss the risks and uncertainties down the road.

Speakers: Wenjing Wang, Director of Research; David Salz, Director - Data Strategist


Breakout 2C: CRE Loan Portfolio Losses and Allowances

Despite unprecedented monetary and fiscal relief programs to stimulate the economy, we have observed and expect to continue to observe elevated default and loss rates for CRE loans over the next several years. We recently revised our credit loss estimates based on the latest data for the CRE loan portfolios held on the balance sheets of financial institutions. We will compare and discuss loss estimates from the baseline forecast and alternative scenarios.

Speakers: Jun Chen, Senior Director of Research; Megha Watugala, Director of Research

3:40 PM ETClosing Remarks

Speakers

Keynote Speaker

Victor Calanog, PhD
Head of CRE Economics

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Head of CRE Economics
Victor Calanog, PhD

Speakers

Irina Baron
Director - Customer Success Management

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Director - Customer Success Management
Irina Baron
Eric Bao
Director-Research

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Director-Research
Eric Bao
Jake Carr
Associate Director - Research

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Associate Director - Research
Jake Carr
Jun Chen
Senior Director - Research

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Senior Director - Research
Jun Chen
Chris Henkel
Senior Director - User Experience

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Senior Director - User Experience
Chris Henkel
Catherine Keeter
Director - Data Strategy

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Director - Data Strategy
Catherine Keeter
Thomas LaSalvia, PhD
Senior Economist

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Senior Economist
Thomas LaSalvia, PhD
David Salz
Director - Data Strategist

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Director - Data Strategist
David Salz
Vivek Thadani
Director - Innovation & Strategy

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Director - Innovation & Strategy
Vivek Thadani
Wenjing Wang
Director- Research

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Director- Research
Wenjing Wang
Megha Watugala
Director - Research

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Director - Research
Megha Watugala
Hsiao-Shan Yang, PhD
Senior Economist

Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics

Senior Economist
Hsiao-Shan Yang, PhD