US Housing Conference 2019

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

April 2019

Conference

US Housing Conference 2019

thursday, November 08, 2018
merchant taylors' hall, london

US Housing Conference 2019

Tuesday, April 16, 2019
April 2019
Harold Pratt House / New York

US Housing Conference 2019

Tuesday, April 16, 2019
April 2019
Harold Pratt House / New York

US Housing Conference 2019

Tuesday, April 16, 2019
April 2019
Harold Pratt House / New York

US Housing Conference 2019

Tuesday, April 16, 2019
April 2019
Harold Pratt House / New York

US Housing Conference 2019

Tuesday, April 16, 2019
April 2019
Harold Pratt House / New York

Following a long recovery, the US housing and housing finance markets are facing a more complex environment where home affordability has been decreasing across broad segments. The contributing factors are home price appreciation, rising interest rates, tax reform,demographic trends and subdued new construction, especially on the lower end.

Mortgage refinancing has slumped, and more and more markets are seeing weaker home prices and lower construction volumes for the first time in years. Contrary to what demographics would suggest with continued strong demand from first time buyers, the affordability challenges will need to be overcome. Furthermore, possible changes to housing policy, lenders’ evolving risk appetites, and the possible disruptive effect of new technology are also making the environment less predictable.

Join the conversation on April 16th at Moody’s US Housing and Housing Finance Conference 2019 to engage with policy experts, senior industry leaders, and Moody’s analysts to better assess the uncertain future.

The following industry leaders have been confirmed as speakers:

» Christopher J. Abate, Chief Executive Officer, Redwood Trust

» Douglas G. Duncan, Chief Economist, Fannie Mae

» Chrystal Kornegay, Executive Director, Massachusetts Housing Finance Agency

» Sheryl Palmer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

» Bob Ryan, Special Advisor to the Director, Federal Housing Finance Authority   

» John Sim, Managing Director, JPMorgan

» David P. Singelyn, Chief Executive Officer, American Homes 4 Rent

» David Stevens, Former CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association and Former US Assistant Secretary of Housing and FHA Commissioner

» Stockton Williams, Executive Director, National Council for State Housing Agencies

» Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics

» Ivy Zelman, Chief Executive Office, Zelman & Associates

Registration to attend is required.

Highlights of the conference include:

·      Discussion of the factors currently weighing on housing affordability and implications on the market

·      Focus on the effects of the changing market environment on industry sectors

·      What are the underappreciated risks as interest rates and home prices continue to rise?

 8:00 AM     Registration & Breakfast

 

8:00 AM     Pre-Conference Workshop: What’s new in Moody’s CreditView?

»    Presented by Moody’s Analytics

 

9:00 AM       Welcoming Remarks

»    Gregory W. Bauer, Managing Director, Global Banking, Moody’s Investors Service

 

9:10 AM       Opening Address: Economic and Housing Outlook

»    Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics

 

9:40 AM       Macroeconomic Drivers: Demographics, Affordability and Other Trends

This panel will explore the key macroeconomic issuesand trends impacting US housing and housing finance over the medium term.

·       What risks are being under-appreciated as  interest rates and home prices continue to rise?

·       Are Millennials really ready to start buying homes? Is it time for Boomers to downsize yet?

·       How is the supply story evolving after a period of extremely tight inventories?

·      Will low rates lock owners into homes, reducing sales and mobility?

 

Moderator

»       Anne Van Praagh, Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Research, Moody’s Investors Service

 

Speakers

»       Douglas G. Duncan, Chief Economist, Fannie Mae

»       John Sim, Managing Director, JPMorgan

»       Stockton Williams, Executive Director, National Council for State Housing Agencies

 

10:30 AM       Networking Break

10:50 AM       Federal Housing Policy: Impact of Administrative Reform

This panel will discuss how a change inleadership at FHFA, or further actions at HUD and FHA, could impact housing and housing finance.

·      Which market segments could be most impacted by administrative reform?

·      How should housing and housing finance businesses prepare for potential changes in federal housingpolicy?

·      Will federal housing policy support a reemerging private label RMBS market?

·      Impact of GSE initiatives including GSE capital framework, common securitization platform and credit risk transfer transactions

 

Moderator

»        Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics

 

Confirmed speakers

»        Bob Ryan, Special Advisor to the Director, Federal Housing Finance Authority

»        David Stevens, Former CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association and Former US Assistant Secretary of Housing and FHA Commissioner

 

11:35 AM        Market Leaders’ Responses: Finding Opportunities Amid Challenges

This panel will highlight how home builders,lenders, landlords, housing finance authorities and others are approaching the current environment and preparing for what comes next.

·      How are practitioners responding to macroeconomic and demographic trends?

·      What “disruption” is actually having an impact?

·      What do industry leaders expect from the next stage of policy changes?

·      Who feels best about where they currently sit in the market?

 

Moderator

»       Gail Sussman, Managing Director, US Public Finance, Moody’s Investors Service

 

Speakers

»        Christopher J. Abate, Chief Executive Officer, Redwood Trust Inc.

»        Chrystal Kornegay, Executive Director, Massachusetts Housing Finance Agency

»        Sheryl Palmer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

»        David P. Singelyn, Chief Executive Officer, American Homes 4 Rent

 

12:35PM        Luncheon & Keynote Address

A leading industry advisor offers her take on the long view with a focus on the emerging demographic and technological developments that will shape the landscape over the next decade.

 »       Ivy Zelman, Chief Executive Officer, Zelman & Associates LLC

 

1:45 PM        BREAKOUT SESSIONS I

Track A: Environmental and Social Considerations in Housing

Coastal floods and wildfires have raised awareness of catastrophe exposure and insurability issues for some properties. Housing has become a key social concern for states and municipalities as affordability and homelessness become focal issues. This breakout session will cover the implications for lenders, servicers, home builders, REITs, property and casualty insurers, and the securitization market.

·      Will the increasing incidence of floods and wildfires put insurers at risk?

·      What is the role of housing finance agencies as they work with states and municipalities to address housing needs?

·      How insurance, reps and warranties, and servicers’ response mitigate natural disaster risk for RMBS

 

Track B: Home Builders: Declining Affordability Slows Demand Growth

This session will discuss the expected slower demand growth in the homebuilding industry; declining affordability due to rising home prices and homeownership costs weighing on the home buying decision; rising land prices and raw material costs combined with reduced pricing power of homebuilders putting margins at risk; housing fundamentals remaining strong with solid employment levels, consumer confidence and household income growth.

·       Rising mortgage rates and increasing home prices reduce affordability and yield slower growth

·       Land, labor, materials costs rising, homebuilder pricing power declining

·       However, underlying housing fundamentals remain sound

 

Track C: Evolving Trends in U.S. Rental Markets – A Cross-Sector Perspective

What impact will the evolving trends in the rental market have the performance and decision-making of REITs, housing finance agencies and multifamily and single-family rental securitizations? This session will put a particular emphasis on affordability and demographic trends.

·       What is the future of affordability and how will it affect the rental market?

·       How will changing demographics influence different rental sectors?

·       What are the drivers for future growth?

 

Track D: Opportunities and Challenges Lie Ahead for the RMBS Market

This breakout session will focus on how the RMBS market is faring in the more difficult lending environment, where declining origination volumes are driving gradual loosening of underwriting and a push to optimize processes, and how shrinking of the GSE footprint may provide opportunities for growth.

·       Origination, issuance and performance trends for prime, re-performing, and reverse mortgages and more

·       GSE-eligible collateral in private-label deals and GSE tools used in private-label underwriting blur the lines between prime and risk-transfer deals

·       If the GSE footprint shrinks, is the RMBS market ready for growth?

·       What to expect from LIBOR phase-out

 2:35 PM       BREAKOUT SESSIONS II

Track E: Disruptive Technologies and their Impact on Housing and Housing Finance
Technology often changes and disrupts the norm.  This session will address what is in store and how it will play an increasing role in property valuations.

·       What are the potential credit implications for lenders, servicers, home builders, REITs, public housing agencies, mortgage insurers and the securitization markets?

·       What“disruption” is actually having an impact on the housing and housing finance markets?

·       How are eClosings and eMortgages changing the housing finance business landscape?

 

Track F: State Housing Finance Agencies Adjust to Changing Landscape

This breakout session will discuss how the changes in the broader housing market are impacting HFA production and financing models as well as financial performance trends.

·       HFA financing tools

·       Loan originations and products

·       Expectations for financial performance

 

Track G:  Will Weak Mortgage Originator Profitability Reshape the Mortgage Lending Industry?

The mortgage lending market has shifted dramatically from banks to non-bank mortgage companies over the last several years. However, over the last year or so, gain-on-sale margins have declined significantly as origination volumes have declined reducing profitability dramatically at non-bank mortgage companies. This breakout session will explore the implications of depressed originator profitability. 

·       How may the mortgage lending landscape change over the next several years?

·       Is this an opportunity for banks to regain market share?

·       Will gain on sale margins improve as overcapacity declines or will stronger profitability only be achieved through technology and reducing costs?

 

Track H: Regional Housing Market Outlook: Divergence Continues

 

3:25 PM       Conclusion

For more information

Minsun Pak

Assistant Director - MIS Events and Outreach

Global Marketing & Events

minsun.pak@moodys.com