US Public Finance Conference

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

November 2018

Conference

US Public Finance Conference

Adapting to Changing Demographics: Risks and Opportunities

thursday, November 08, 2018
merchant taylors' hall, london

US Public Finance Conference

Adapting to Changing Demographics: Risks and Opportunities
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
November 2018
Moody's HQ
New York

US Public Finance Conference

Adapting to Changing Demographics: Risks and Opportunities

Wednesday, November 7, 2018
November 2018
Moody's HQ
New York

US Public Finance Conference

Adapting to Changing Demographics: Risks and Opportunities

Wednesday, November 7, 2018
November 2018
Moody's HQ
New York

US Public Finance Conference

Adapting to Changing Demographics: Risks and Opportunities

Wednesday, November 7, 2018
November 2018
Moody's HQ
New York

US Public Finance Conference

Adapting to Changing Demographics: Risks and Opportunities

Wednesday, November 7, 2018
November 2018
Moody's HQ
New York

The credit implications of aging and migrating populations

Demographic shifts and the aging of the US population are expected to have an impact on every sector of municipal finance. The working-age population is not growing fast enough to replace the aging boomers who are retiring. The Midwestern population is shrinking while Southern and Western states are growing. We are arriving at an inflection point.

Join us on November 7th at Moody’s Public Finance Conference 2018 and you will learn how this evolution will influence every municipal sector.

Key topics of discussion

  • The state and local governments are hit with demographic “ grey wave”. How are they responding?
  • What is the impact of workforce mobility in light of population migration flows? Where are workers and jobs moving and why?
  • How are healthcare and higher education business models responding to demographic shifts?
  • Are cities and states rising to meet changing demands in public infrastructure and technology?

8:00 AM     Registration & Breakfast

8:00 AM     Pre-Conference Workshop: Deepen your credit analysis using Moody’s QRATE

• Discuss improved model accuracy

• Test rating stability against stressed obligor financials

• Leverage QRATE as ratings proxy for non-MIS rated names

Presented by Moody’s Analytics

9:00 AM     Opening Remarks

Gail Sussman, Managing Director, US Public Finance, Moody’s Investors Service

9:10 AM      Keynote Address:  Demographic Trends are Economic Destiny

Mark Zandi, Managing Director- Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics

10:00 AM    Credit Implications of Aging Populations

The aging of the US population will lead to profound changes. Slower job growth as the workforce ages will have negative implications for government revenues. At the same time, pension costs will continue to rise, as will the demand for healthcare, senior care facilities, affordable housing and infrastructure.

This session will focus on the credit implications of the aging trend for state and local governments. Our panelists will discuss the following:

• What sources of government revenue will be most affected?

• What will be the trade-offs on expenditures?

• Who will be the winners and losers?

• What policy choices could help mitigate the effects?

Moderator

Alexandra Parker, Managing Director, Local Governments, Moody’s Investors Service

Speakers

Donald Boyd, Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Policy Research, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs & Policy,University at Albany

Pisei Chea, Analyst, State Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service

Atsi Sheth, Managing Director, Credit Strategy and Research, Moody’s Investors Service

11:00 AM     Networking Break

11:15 AM     Public pension and OPEB funds hit governments with demographic “gray wave”

Key demographic trends affecting state and local retirement systems include lower ratios of active versus retired employees, greater cash outflows for pension benefits compared to contribution inflows, and a heightened reliance on and scale of assets relative to government budgets. Meanwhile, retiree medical benefit promises are rising. Public pension plans are responding by lowering investment risk to avoid unaffordable losses, but only at a gradual pace given the impact on government contributions, and making incremental adjustments to retiree health benefits. Our panel will explore:

• Where are the risks from these trends most acute?

• What strategies are governments using in response?

• How can analysts spot rising, or improving, government credit risks?

Moderator

Timothy Blake, Managing Director, State Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service

Speakers

Thomas Aaron, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Public Finance, Moody’s Investors Service

David Crane, Lecturer in Public Policy, Stanford University

Marcia Van Wagner, Vice President- Senior Credit Officer, State Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service

12:15 PM     Lunch

1:05 PM      Breakout Sessions I

Track A:  State and Local Government: Changing Patterns for Where People Live

Track B:  Healthcare and Higher Education Business Models

Track C:  Public Infrastructure and Technology

2:10 PM      Breakout Sessions II

Track A:  State and Local Government: Changing Patterns for Where People Live

Track B:  Healthcare and Higher Education Business Models

Track C:  Public Infrastructure and Technology

Breakout Session Descriptions

Track A:  State and Local Government: Changing Patterns for Where People Live

State and local governments face growing challenges in adapting to shifting migration patterns. This session will explore the broad theme of workforce mobility across the US, zooming in on key trends affecting state and local governments in three of the largest states: New York, California and Texas.

• Do workers follow jobs, or do jobs follow workers?

• How does income inequality affect state and local government?

• How does income inequality affect government budgets?

Moderator

Naomi Richman, Senior Vice President, Public Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service

Speakers

Matthew Butler, Vice President- Senior Analyst, State Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service

Lynn Holland, Director for Economic Studies, Economics and Revenue Unit, New York State Division of the Budget

Bola Kushimo, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Local Governments, Moody’s Investors Service

Track B:  Healthcare and Higher Education: Demographic shifts drive business model changes

Hospitals and universities confront a new set of challenges as they adapt their business models to changing demographics and shifts in societal needs. New service demands carry associated costs, which have credit implications for both sectors.  The panel will explore:

• How hospitals are addressing the social determinants of health (SDOH) as they shift to population health rather than fee for service models?          

• How colleges are altering their recruitment, retention, educational delivery (including on-line) and student service models as they accommodate increasingly diverse student populations?

• What are revenue opportunities and budgetary considerations for both of the sectors arising from these strategy shifts?

Moderator

Susan Fitzgerald, Associate Managing Director, Global Higher Education and Non-For-Profit Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service

Speakers

Christopher Fevola, Vice President for Finance and Treasurer, Long Island University

Garrick J. Stoldt, CFO, Saint Peter's Healthcare System, Inc

Dan Steingart, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Healthcare, Moody’s Investors Service

Track C:  Public Infrastructure and Technology

The need for improved infrastructure is on the rise. However, meeting those needs with government budgets is likely to be extremely challenging unless new approaches can be developed and implemented. This panel will explore:

• What new approaches to infrastructure development are available

• How rapid technological change will uniquely affect the provision of governmental services

Moderator

Leonard Jones, Managing Director-Public Finance, US Local Governments, Moody's Investors Service

Speakers

George Friedlander, Managing Partner, Court Street Group

Chandra Ghosal, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Public Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service

Kurt Krummenacker, Senior Vice President/Manager, Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance, Moody's Investors Service

Florence Zeman, Associate Managing Director, US Housing Finance & State Revolving Funds, Moody’s Investors Service

3:10 PM     Conclusion

Speakers

Donald Boyd

Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Policy Research, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs & Policy

University at Albany

University at Albany

Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Policy Research, Rockefeller College of Public Affairs & Policy

Donald Boyd

Donald J. Boyd is a fellow at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, and a senior research fellow at the Center for Policy Research at the Rockefeller College at the University at Albany. In addition, he is the owner of Boyd Research, an economic and fiscal consulting firm with clients that have included state governments, the federal government, local governments, trade associations, labor organizations, advocacy organizations, and other groups.

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David Crane

Lecturer in Public Policy

Stanford University

Stanford University

Lecturer in Public Policy

David Crane

David Crane is a lecturer in Public Policy at Stanford University and president of Govern for California. From 2004-2010 he served as a special adviser to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and from 1979-2003 he was a partner at Babcock & Brown, a financial services company. Crane also serves on the board of the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California and formerly served on the University of California Board of Regents and as a director of the California State Teachers Retirement System, Environmental Defense Fund, and the Volcker-Ravitch Task Force on the State Budget Crisis.

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Christopher Fevola

Vice President for Finance and Treasurer

Long Island University

Long Island University

Vice President for Finance and Treasurer

Christopher Fevola

Christopher Fevola is a vice president at Long Island University (LIU), where he serves as Chief Financial Officer and University Treasurer, overseeing all aspects of LIU’s finances and student financial services. Mr. Fevola has played an instrumental role in the strengthening of the university’s financial position since taking the position in 2013, managing increases in net assets of more than $238 million (119%) for the five years ended August 31, 2018. Both Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s have responded to the university’s progress toward securing and sustaining a strong financial position by improving the university’s credit ratings consistently over this timeframe.

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Lynn Holland

Director for Economic Studies, Economics and Revenue Unit

New York State Division of the Budget

New York State Division of the Budget

Director for Economic Studies, Economics and Revenue Unit

Lynn Holland

Lynn Holland serves as a Chief Budget Examiner and Director for Economic Studies with the Economic and Revenue Unit with the New York State Division of the Budget. Ms. Holland's primary responsibilities include forecasting national and state economic conditions for use in State Financial Plan development, developing forecasting and simulation models for tax and other areas of policy analysis, and conducting economic research in support of State economic development initiatives. Prior to her employment with the Division of the Budget, Ms. Holland worked as Principal Economist for the New York State Assembly Ways and Means Committee, where she developed forecasting and policy simulation models in the areas of Medicaid spending, public assistance, and criminal justice.

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Garrick J. Stoldt

Chief Financial Officer

Saint Peter's Healthcare System

Saint Peter's Healthcare System

Chief Financial Officer

Garrick J. Stoldt

Garrick Stoldt has been in the healthcare industry for over 35 years. He started as a regulator working for New Jersey Blue Cross under its Medicare contract to audit hospitals and related facilities, then as an auditor and consultant for the accounting firms of Pannell Kerr Forster and then Ernst and Young. Since then he work as Chief Financial Officer for several hospitals and health systems before coming to Saint Peter’s Healthcare System in 2005.

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For more information:

Minsun Pak

Assistant Director – MIS Events and Outreach

Global Marketing & Events

minsun.pak@moodys.com