US Public Finance Conference

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

November 2018

Conference

US Public Finance Conference

Adapting to Changing Demographics: Risks and Opportunities

thursday, November 08, 2018
london

US Public Finance Conference

Adapting to Changing Demographics: Risks and Opportunities
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
November 2018
Moody's HQ
New York

US Public Finance Conference

Adapting to Changing Demographics: Risks and Opportunities

Wednesday, November 7, 2018
November 2018
Moody's HQ
New York

US Public Finance Conference

Adapting to Changing Demographics: Risks and Opportunities

Wednesday, November 7, 2018
November 2018
Moody's HQ
New York

US Public Finance Conference

Adapting to Changing Demographics: Risks and Opportunities

Wednesday, November 7, 2018
November 2018
Moody's HQ
New York

US Public Finance Conference

Adapting to Changing Demographics: Risks and Opportunities

Wednesday, November 7, 2018
November 2018
Moody's HQ
New York

The credit implications of aging and migrating populations

Demographic shifts and the aging of the US population are expected to have an impact on every sector of municipal finance. The working-age population is not growing fast enough to replace the aging boomers who are retiring. The Midwestern population is shrinking while Southern and Western states are growing. We are arriving at an inflection point.

Join us on November 7th at Moody’s Public Finance Conference 2018 and you will learn how this evolution will influence every municipal sector.

Key topics of discussion

  • The state and local governments are hit with demographic “ grey wave”. How are they responding?
  • What is the impact of workforce mobility in light of population migration flows? Where are workers and jobs moving and why?
  • How are healthcare and higher education business models responding to demographic shifts?
  • Are cities and states rising to meet changing demands in public infrastructure and technology?

8:00 AM     Registration & Breakfast

8:00 AM     Pre-Conference Workshop: Deepen your credit analysis using Moody’s QRATE

• Discuss improved model accuracy

• Test rating stability against stressed obligor financials

• Leverage QRATE as ratings proxy for non-MIS rated names

Presented by Moody’s Analytics

9:00 AM     Opening Remarks

Gail Sussman, Managing Director, US Public Finance, Moody’s Investors Service

9:10 AM      Keynote Address:  Demographic Trends are Economic Destiny

Mark Zandi, Managing Director- Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics

10:00 AM    Credit Implications of Aging Populations

The aging of the US population will lead to profound changes. Slower job growth as the workforce ages will have negative implications for government revenues. At the same time, pension costs will continue to rise, as will the demand for healthcare, senior care facilities, affordable housing and infrastructure.

This session will focus on the credit implications of the aging trend for state and local governments. Our panelists will discuss the following:

• What sources of government revenue will be most affected?

• What will be the trade-offs on expenditures?

• Who will be the winners and losers?

• What policy choices could help mitigate the effects?

Moderator

Alexandra Parker, Managing Director, Local Governments, Moody’s Investors Service

Speakers

Donald Boyd, Boyd Research, LLC

Pisei Chea, Analyst, State Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service

11:00 AM     Networking Break

11:15 AM     Public pension and OPEB funds hit governments with demographic “gray wave”

Key demographic trends affecting state and local retirement systems include lower ratios of active versus retired employees, greater cash outflows for pension benefits compared to contribution inflows, and a heightened reliance on and scale of assets relative to government budgets. Meanwhile, retiree medical benefit promises are rising. Public pension plans are responding by lowering investment risk to avoid unaffordable losses, but only at a gradual pace given the impact on government contributions, and making incremental adjustments to retiree health benefits. Our panel will explore:

• Where are the risks from these trends most acute?

• What strategies are governments using in response?

• How can analysts spot rising, or improving, government credit risks?

Moderator

Timothy Blake, Managing Director, State Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service

Speakers

Thomas Aaron, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Public Finance, Moody’s Investors Service

David Crane, Lecturer in Public Policy, Stanford University

Marcia Van Wagner, Vice President- Senior Credit Officer, State Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service

12:15 PM     Lunch

1:05 PM      Breakout Sessions I

Track A:  State and Local Government: Changing Patterns for Where People Live

Track B:  Healthcare and Higher Education Business Models

Track C:  Public Infrastructure and Technology

2:10 PM      Breakout Sessions II

Track A:  State and Local Government: Changing Patterns for Where People Live

Track B:  Healthcare and Higher Education Business Models

Track C:  Public Infrastructure and Technology

Breakout Session Descriptions

Track A:  State and Local Government: Changing Patterns for Where People Live

State and Local governments face growing demographic challenges as they adjust to the shifting patterns of where people live. This session will explore the broad theme of workforce mobility across the US, zooming in on key trends in the two largest states: California, which encounters growing income inequality; and Texas, which has infrastructure needs associated with a growing population.

• Do workers follow jobs, or do jobs follow workers?

• How does income inequality affect government budgets?

• How will growing immigration trends impact local governments (urban versus rural)?

Moderator

Naomi Richman, Senior Vice President, Public Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service

Speakers

Matthew Butler, Vice President- Senior Analyst, State Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service

Bola Kushimo, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Local Governments, Moody’s Investors Service

Track B:  Healthcare and Higher Education: Demographic shifts drive business model changes

Hospitals and universities confront a new set of challenges as they adapt their business models to changing demographics and shifts in societal needs. New service demands carry associated costs, which have credit implications for both sectors.  The panel will explore:

• How hospitals are addressing the social determinants of health (SDOH) as they shift to population health rather than fee for service models?          

• How colleges are altering their recruitment, retention, educational delivery (including on-line) and student service models as they accommodate increasingly diverse student populations?

• What are revenue opportunities and budgetary considerations for both of the sectors arising from these strategy shifts?

Moderator

Susan Fitzgerald, Associate Managing Director, Global Higher Education and Non-For-Profit Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service

Speakers

Christopher Fevola, Vice President for Finance and Treasurer, Long Island University

Garrick J. Stoldt, CFO, Saint Peter's Healthcare System, Inc

Dan Steingart, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Healthcare, Moody’s Investors Service

Track C:  Public Infrastructure and Technology

The need for improved infrastructure is on the rise. However, meeting those needs with government budgets is likely to be extremely challenging unless new approaches can be developed and implemented. This panel will explore:

• What new approaches to infrastructure development are available

• How rapid technological change will uniquely affect the provision of governmental services

Moderator

Leonard Jones, Managing Director-Public Finance, US Local Governments, Moody's Investors Service

Speakers

George Friedlander, Managing Partner, Court Street Group

Chandra Ghosal, Vice President-Senior Analyst, Public Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service

Florence Zeman, Associate Managing Director, US Housing Finance & State Revolving Funds, Moody’s Investors Service

3:10 PM     Conclusion

For more information:

Minsun Pak

Assistant Director – MIS Events and Outreach

Global Marketing & Events

minsun.pak@moodys.com